Spatial Patterns and Geographic Determinants of Welfare and Poverty in Tunisia

Ayadi, Mohamed, and Mohamed Amara (2010). "Spatial Patterns and Geographic Determinants of Welfare and Poverty in Tunisia" Paper presented at the 7th annual conference of the HDCA, 21-23 September 2010, Amman, Jordan.

The aim of this paper is to consider the neighbourhood e®ects and the heterogeneity of households' behaviours in more disaggregated geographic units of Tunisia using speci¯c tools of spatial and geographical analysis. First, we conduct an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), based on a Geographical Information System (GIS) to visualise the local spatial structure of welfare. Second, to deal with both spatial autocorrelations and unobserved spatial heterogeneity of households' behaviours, we use a spatial autoregressive model (SAR) and a Geographically Weighted Re- gression (GWR) model respectively. Spatial and non-spatial models are compared according to their predictive performances. Results of this case study con¯rm that SAR and GWR spatial models are preferred to the traditional non-spatial regression model, and give a better approximation of the Tunisian poverty map.
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