A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development

Asher, Jana , and Beth Osborne Daponte (2010). "A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development" United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Reports Research Paper 2010/40 United Nations Development Programme pp. 1-53

This research provides a model of growth of the human development index (HDI) by examining past changes and levels of HDI and creates four “cohorts” of countries. Using a hypothetical cohort approach reveals a model of HDI growth. Generalized Estimating Equations are used to determine the impact that country characteristics have on HDI. The analysis shows that conflict has a significant impact on HDI. Further, while in 1970, the countries whose HDI was most impacted by conflict were developing nations, currently, conflict is most detrimental to the least developed countries. The research also shows that the 1990s presented particular challenges to the least developed countries, perhaps attributable to ramifications of the AIDS crisis. The research then uses the model to predict HDI in the future and compares results from the prediction with projections that result when –recalculating HDI using components that various agencies have separately projected.
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